Back-to-School Shopping: A Guide to Trends and Strategies for 2026

Every year, back-to-school shopping season makes headlines—and not just in retail trades, but in Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, even The New Yorker. 

That’s because few shopping moments cut across as many layers of daily life as this one: education, family, inflation, and identity all converge in a single checkout.

The season is also one of retail’s most predictable events—and the second-biggest retail season behind only the year-end holidays, generating billions in annual sales.

For retailers, that means the question isn’t if consumers will spend, but where and when.

This guide breaks down when back-to-school shopping really begins, how consumer behavior is shifting, and what practical steps retailers can take to boost sales.

When does back-to-school shopping start?

Back-to-school shopping now starts as early as June and peaks in July, according to the National Retail Federation’s 2025 survey, which found that 67% of shoppers had already started buying by early July—up sharply from 55% last year.

For many families, summer vacation doubles as shopping season. Most parents aim to wrap up shopping by mid-August, which makes July the make-or-break month for retail planning, inventory, and promotions.

Sensormatic Solutions predicts that the busiest shopping days will fall on key Saturdays in August aligned with the school calendar, but not everyone shops at the same pace. Josh Charlesworth, cofounder of Socks For Living, Australia’s largest online sock shop, says that there are three types of parents:

“We have the super-organized parent… they’re saying, ‘It’s the start of the year—my kids aren’t going back to school for four weeks, but I want to be organized so they don’t miss out.’ Then there’s the average parent, and finally the last-minute ones…the people enjoying their holidays who suddenly realize, ‘Oh, my God! I need some socks.’”

That mix of planners and procrastinators is exactly what retailers have to plan around. This is the part where precision pays off. 

Understock, and you’ll lose easy sales. Overstock, and you’ll be discounting by September. Retailers using real-time platforms like Shopify’s inventory management tools can spot fast-selling items early and restock without overcommitting.

💡Pro tip: Start with last year’s data, identify fast-moving categories, and plan ahead for early surges using Shopify POS Analytics. Track which items are selling fastest each day and compare performance week over week to forecast trends before they happen.

Back-to-school trends for 2025

Here’s what’s shaping back-to-school shopping in 2026 and beyond—and what it means for retailers.

Tariffs are raising price tags

For retailers like Artists Emporium, a Winnipeg-based art supply store, back-to-school season is usually a predictable rush. Not this year, though.

Owner Janeen Junson told CTV News that US tariffs have pushed supplier prices up—and in some cases, made it harder to source certain items altogether.

“Not only are they seeing increases, we’re having a hard time sourcing some products, because many of the companies are refusing to deal with certain countries,” Janeen says. A simple sketchbook, one of the store’s bestsellers, now costs 25% more than it did last year. Junson is trying to absorb the hit instead of passing it to customers.

She’s not alone. 

According to the National Retail Foundation, 91% of back-to-school shoppers expect prices to rise this year because of tariffs. Retailers are responding by stocking up early, adjusting assortments, and spreading promotions across the season. The same NRF data shows that 30% of shoppers believe this year’s sales are better than last year’s, up from 26% in 2024.

Spending is expected to normalize but remain strong

eMarketer predicts this year’s back-to-school spending will have “muted growth” as it lines up with full-year retail trends.

According to Deloitte’s 2025 Back-to-School Survey, US parents plan to spend an average of $570 per child—roughly the same as last year.

In Shopify’s own sales data, sales of school uniforms jumped 231% from June to July 2025, backpacks rose 180%, and lunch boxes increased 174%, while sales of “nice-to-haves” like markers and highlighters dropped 8%.

📚Read: What's Selling: Back-To-School Trends for 2025

Budget-conscious shoppers are starting earlier

PwC’s 2025 Back-to-School Survey reports that over a third of US shoppers are finding ways to stretch their budgets further: 37% will only buy on-sale items, 37% plan to shop earlier, or and 34% will reuse supplies from previous years.

According to retail analysts, the combination of tariff and inflation concerns with an unseasonably hot summer is reshaping the usual buying curve. Tariff worries pushed many families to shop early for essentials, but delay other purchases. People rushed to buy supplies and devices necessary for when classes start, but are leaving fall apparel on shelves until the weather cools. 

Secondhand and refurbished purchasing goes mainstream

That same practicality shows up in where families are shopping, too. Many are turning to alternative retail channels to save money and avoid rising prices—like Goodwill’s partnership with Dell Technologies, which offers refurbished laptops at select Massachusetts locations.

“You can find all those basics and essentials here,” says Emerald Gottwald, director of stores for Morgan Memorial Goodwill Industries. 

“In the past three or four years, we've seen a huge uptick, particularly between middle school, high school, college age individuals and a ton of parents coming in looking for their kids who are younger, toddlers even in daycare and then in elementary school.”

CNN reports that pawn shops are becoming unexpected back-to-school destinations, offering everything from refurbished laptops to mini-fridges for college students.

“We’re getting more customers coming because they know we have reasonable prices and because they don’t really have to worry about the stress of paying retail when it’s unaffordable to them,” says Renita Parker, a regional director of EZPawn in Houston.

Omnichannel retail is non-negotiable

In 2025, 57% of shoppers say they plan to make purchases in-store, and more than 6 in 10 will browse aisles in person before completing a purchase—whether they buy in-store or online later, according to NielsenIQ.

Deloitte’s 2025 Back-to-School Survey adds another layer: the why behind those blended journeys. 

Nine in ten parents say their child already has a must-have back-to-school item in mind, and 62% admit their kids influence them to spend more. Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z parents and almost half of millennials plan to use social media as part of their shopping journey—and those who do, spend 1.8x more than those who don’t.

That “see it, want it, buy it” cycle means discovery, decision, and delivery now happen across multiple touchpoints, often within the same day.

AI and personalization influence purchases

In July 2025, Adobe reported that generative AI traffic to retail sites grew 4,700% year over year, and 38% of consumers say they’ve already used AI to help them shop.

As for personalization, shoppers notice it only when it’s missing: when the wrong size shows up, or when a “recommended” product makes no sense.

A global Attentive survey found that 81% of consumers ignore marketing messages that aren’t relevant to them—but 96% say they’re more likely to purchase when brands send personalized messages. The same research also shows that simply “finding products easily” is the number one factor consumers say would improve their shopping experience.

That’s where AI delivers real value. 

Shopify Magic, for example, offers AI-powered features across content, design, themes, and customer segmentation. It provides easy-to-skim summaries of your customer groups—so you know who’s buying what and why—and predicts how much each group is likely to spend, helping you plan discounts or restocks.

Six strategies to boost back-to-school sales in 2025

Ready to have your best back-to-school retail season yet? Try out these six tips to maximize your sales.

1. Tap into social media and creator partnerships

Promoting your back-to-school offerings on social media is not a novel idea. But knowing howto optimize your social media channels is key to success. 

There’s plenty of opportunity to reach both influential kids and their parents while they’re scrolling social media. 

Focus on showcasing your top back-to-school products and promotions, and make sure your content fits the tone of the platform. On TikTok and Reels, short, playful videos drive the most engagement; on Instagram, carousel posts and creator collabs perform better for product comparison and first-day-of-school outfit inspiration.

The hashtag #backtoschool has over 20 million posts on Instagram, with #backtoschool2025 already nearing 170,000.

Shopify merchant and backpack brand Brevite uses TikTok to share a humorous take on a waterproofing test of their backpack against a competitor’s. It’s a fun way of engaging their TikTok audience and getting them to think about their back-to-school shopping. 

Working with a few influencers or user-generated content (UGC) creators can help build trust and credibility with your target audience. Choose an influencer who interacts with your target niche, whether that’s parents or teens and college kids. 

2. Run promotions for price-sensitive shoppers

Coupons are making a comeback. A 2025 survey of 10,000 shoppers found that 8 in 10 now search for promo codes before checking out online, and 1 in 4 say they rely on them to afford everyday shopping.

To reach these deal-savvy shoppers, build promotions that reward both loyalty and visibility. Think bundle discounts, buy one, get one (BOGO) offers, or gift-with-purchase promos timed to the back-to-school rush.

Social giveaways still work, but keep them frictionless. A post tagged with #firstdayofschool for 15% off or a quick gift-card draw for sharing a product in use can move the needle without cheapening your brand.

3. Simplify the shopping experience

The fewer clicks, waits, or decisions it takes to buy, the more likely shoppers are to follow through.

Baymard Institute tracks the average cart abandonment rate at around 70% across ecommerce. Many drop-offs happen during checkout because the process feels too slow or complex.

Start by clearing the path to purchase:

• Offer guest checkout and saved payment options so returning customers can skip steps.
• Keep product pages clear and scannable, with shipping costs and delivery timelines visible upfront.
• Use filters that reflect how people actually shop: by grade, category, or bundle type.

Shopify merchants already have tools that make this easy. Shopify’s one-page checkout condenses multiple steps into a single, faster screen—reducing drop-offs and improving conversions. Shopify POS keeps carts and inventory synced, so a parent who starts an order online can finish it in-store without starting over.

💡Pro tip: Combine Shopify Search & Discovery with smart merchandising. Boost trending items like backpacks or lunch kits right when shoppers are searching.

4. Offer convenient shipping and pickup options

Convenience is now a key driver of how families shop. In 2025, buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) interest climbed to 46%, overtaking home delivery (38%), with shoppers citing fee avoidance (44%) and better spend control (25%) as reasons. 

Price still matters most, but convenience increasingly determines the channel and the cart.Consider offering free shipping for orders above a certain threshold, or other options like BOPIS or curbside pickup. 

You could also bundle your bestsellers and back-to-school essentials together to make it easier for shoppers to find what they’re looking for. For example, create a common back-to-school supplies list of everything shoppers need to get in time for the school year. 

For example, retailers like Staples take the guesswork out of shopping with an interactive tool that lets parents search by zip code to pull up their child’s exact school supply list. It’s quick, practical, and removes the friction from back-to-school prep.

5. Create curated bundles and kits

Group your bestsellers into themed kits (e.g., “First Day Essentials,” “Dorm Starter Set,” or “Creative Classroom Bundle”) to reduce decision fatigue and boost average order value (AOV).

On Shopify, use Shopify Bundles to create fixed or customizable product sets, track inventory in real time, and automatically adjust discounts.

Smiggle, the stationery and accessories retailer, runs limited-time online-only promotions like “10% Off Bundles” featuring themed kits (like a Care Bears three-piece lunchbox bundle). Each kit groups coordinated backpacks, bottles, and accessories.

6. Build dedicated back-to-school landing pages and collections

A well-organized landing page can make all the difference between a quick checkout and a lost sale. A dedicated back-to-school collection helps parents and students find what they need, fast.

Start by grouping products by grade level, price range, or theme (e.g., “Elementary School Supplies,” “Middle School Essentials,” or “Under $25 Finds”). Include quick filters for top categories like uniforms, stationery, and tech accessories to make browsing effortless.

Walmart’s Back-to-School hub does exactly this. The page groups items by age and category, from pre-K supplies to dorm gear, and emphasizes convenience with express delivery options and “School Savings” deals. 

The banner, “All things back to school, from 25¢,” positions affordability front and center while making the experience feel cheerful and stress-free.

You can do the same for your storefront—use Shopify Collections to automate these displays, organizing products by tags, price, or inventory levels so your page updates itself as stock changes.

Go a step further and pair your seasonal landing page with email and SMS campaigns linking directly to it. Using Shopify’s Online Store 2.0 themes, you can feature limited-time offers, spotlight bundles, and embed UGC on your ecommerce website, all without writing a single line of code.

Master back-to-school season

The back-to-school shopping season might be predictable, but the way families shop isn’t. Tariffs, heat waves, social media trends, and AI-powered discovery are reshaping what—and how—people buy. But you can drive sales by predicting demand early, personalizing offers, and creating seamless, omnichannel retail experiences that make shopping feel effortless.